On Nations Building (reply to Dan Carlin)
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:date: 2014-07-08T11:20:00
:category: faith
:tags: DanCarlin, LoTR, Ukraine, politics
(Dan Carlin on his discussion board made some comments_ on the Ukraine
situation, this is my reply_.)
.. _comments:
http://www.dancarlin.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?p=547664#p547664
.. _reply:
http://www.dancarlin.com/phpbb3/viewtopic.php?p=580708#p580708
Dan wrote:
Moving NATO right next to Russia isn't just threatening to them, it
seems like a betrayal of what we told them after the USSR fell.
Can you hear how incredibly patronizing this sounds to people from the
area (yes, I am Czech)? “We won’t let you in NATO, but leave you as
a *Kanonenfutter* (Cannon fodder) so that we may keep Russians happy”
(that is not the same as honestly admitting “We have not enough power to
help you, so we won’t promise you to do so.”) Is this what you really
want to say? Besides, this strategy of the *Cordon sanitaire* has really
a bad reputation here, because the last time we tried (between the World
Wars) it wasn’t helping anything. Both sides (Soviets and Germans) have
obviously understood it as a sign of weakness and they divied and
swallowed whole area in one mighty gulp.
Dan wrote:
We needed to re-integrate the Russians slowly back into the global
system, make them feel welcome and put them in a situation where
today they would be a liberalizing power instead of one that seems
reactionary.
[...]
I guess what I am saying is the very moves by NATO and the U.S. that
make you feel more secure now are the reason you NEED to feel more
secure now.
I do not believe that your analysis behind this opinion is right. Yes,
the only way how to have really a stable peace here is by getting Russia
to be a normal civilized regime behaving peacefully towards its
neighbors. Unfortunately, for that to happen you have to have Russians
willing to be a peaceful country.
That’s the whole idea of the nation building. I don’t think we can make
a nation to build truly democratic and peaceful country from the
outside. Only when they have enough power and momentum to overthrow the
bad regime and enough sanity and civilization they can rule themselves
the democracy may happen. But then they don’t need us much at all
(perhaps, they may use some arms, but that’s very dangerous because it
is too easy to give guns to wrong people). I am afraid that the best we
can achieve from the outside is something unstable and messy like Kosovo
or Afghanistan. And yes, in some situations (like these two) perhaps
this is better than the then current situation and in such situation the
military intervention and overthrow of the regime may be necessary. But
we shouldn’t fool ourselves, this kind of messy unstable regime of thugs
which needs to be kept together by us for a long long time is the best
what we get.
In case of Afghanistan when the current regime proudly declares that it
helped a terrorist group who just killed three thousand (or how many) of
your people and it will gladly do it again, there is probably not much
else to do than to get rid off them. But the result wont be ever nice
and peaceful state.
With Russia we are (thanks ``$DEITY``!) not dealing with the situation
like this, but I am afraid the same principle applies. Unless the
civilized group in the country is large and powerful enough to run it,
we cannot expect much better than what we have. With Germany it took two
World Wars before they got their acts together. And even that was not
enough, for example I was just yesterday reading about Fisher’s *“Griff
nach der Weltmacht: Die Kriegzielpolitik des kaiserlichen Deutschland
1914–1918”* (published in English_ as *“Germany's Aims in the First
World War”*; I am sure you know about this book from your other podcast)
and that was published only in 1961 to the complete outrage of the
German public.
.. _English:
https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special%3ABookSources&isbn=070110693X
I hope and pray that it wouldn’t take a war to get Russia into civilized
state, but just being nice to them won’t be enough either. And yes, if
you understand me that I think Mr. Putin is in many aspects similar to
Mr. Hitler, well I think there are some disturbing parallels. I just
hope that Russia is much weaker (both economically and technologically),
that the current balance of power is much stronger, and that perhaps Mr.
Putin is a little bit more sane.
Being from the Central Europe I was always thinking about the life in
the land of Ithilien when the Mordor looms just next door. We now enjoy
Spring and Beauty when we pushed Sauron back to his Tower, perhaps we
have managed to take away even some regions of Núrn behind the Ephel
Dúath, but let us not kid ourselves, the Imperial Evil has not left the
Barad-dúr yet and being nice to Sauron won’t make him any better, it
would be just understood as a sign of weakness.
